Playing our game is obviously not the same as being on the show, and in our simulation we assumed you were correct when you told us you knew the answer. Everyone solved a similar set of puzzles, but some of you had more letters revealed than others, including some who received the equivalent of a bonus letter. If you played our mini game, you also participated in a version of this. This extra chance to reveal more letters increases a contestant’s chance of winning by about six percentage points, to 43 percent from 37 percent.

This mini prize, which contestants can win during the normal course of the show, is worth one additional consonant in the bonus round, if they eventually make it there. And the biggest advantage available - more valuable than any particular combination of letters that a contestant might select - is the “Wild Card.”

Naturally, this means that contestants hoping to win it all should aim to reveal as many letters as possible. Percent of letters revealed before solving

This chart shows just how strong that relationship is: Lucky or unlucky, the best predictor of contestants’ success is simply how many letters their guesses reveal. But luck plays a role, too, in determining whether it will be a cinch, as with FROZEN W_FFLES, or something more head-scratching, like _L_N_ _ (You can press here to reveal that one.) You can have a good guess, or a bad one, as we’ll see. The player is given the letters R, S, T, L, N and E and is invited to guess three additional consonants and a vowel before the attempt to solve. A contestant faces a blank set of tiles and has to guess a hidden word or phrase. If you watch the show today, you know the bonus round’s basic rules. Yes, it’s obvious, but it’s also the biggest factor in winning. Now that you’ve seen the bonus round, it’s time for your prize: data-driven strategic insights.īased on the results from our little experiment and thousands of real bonus-round puzzles, we’ve found some trends that we hope will give you a leg up if you ever find yourself on the soundstage - or just a sense of superiority when you’re watching at home.

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